Keitel says German industry remains in favour of Euro
Peter Keitel, president of the German Industry Association (BDI) expects the Euro to be here to stay. He sees significantly more benefits that downside for the common currency, outlining the particular advantages German exporters have trough the monetray union.
Peter Keitel, in a letter to the member associations of the BDI, the most important cornerstones of the European Economic Union outlined “political and tangible economic reasons” being in favour for the maintenance of the euro.
From the perspective of export-oriented German industry by the euro trade has been strengthened, because barriers such as exchange rate risks have been eliminated. This is of great importance for Germany. Keitel facts: “Just last year put its exports in the euro area by 8.6 percent again. A total of 2011 approximately 40 percent of German exports went to the Euro Zone … Around three million jobs in Germany depend on exports to the euro area. ”
Keitel takes the view that the D-Mark would have given the Southern European countries the opportunity to raise the cost by Aufgwertungen German products. This fall off now. Even compared to the dollar, the euro lie better than the D-Mark. Keitel’s thesis: “The euro is asymmetric: if its value is about to be fundamentally correct level, this is good for the German economy. He rises against the possible negative consequences of the otherwise strong position of German industry are superimposed in the international competition. ”
Even in terms of inflation aug € Germany had used: “In fact, inflation was in Germany with € 1999 to 2011 with an average of just 1.5 percent a year. By comparison, consumer prices increased with the D-Mark in the 1970s at an annual average of more than five percent in the 1980s and 1990s by 2.6 percent per annum. ”
The low interest rates would be good for the economy, writes Keitel, although the BDI chief admits at this point that this is “out consumption on credit,” particularly from the States. Keitel on the current situation on the bond market: “The markets kept the no-bailout clause because of the potentially serious consequences of bankruptcy, to be unenforceable. Since the debt crisis, the interest level in the peripheral countries has increased significantly in comparison to Germany. It is not certain what impact the interest rates will have on future growth in the euro zone. In any case the chances of a realistic and responsible fiscal policy has increased through the crisis. These opportunities must also be used consistently. ”
Interestingly, Keitel sees Germany’s position at a crucial point then but not quite so rosy: While it gave the € Germany € This has evidently not done until now, “the economic weight to shape the future international political environment.”. Because: “Germany’s share of global gross domestic product is declining. While the share of Germany accounted for only about four percent in 2011, the share of euro area stood at around 14.5 percent. On our continent, the EU is only a truly global player: With nearly half a billion people, it produces a quarter of global economic output. Each individual state by itself can not be a global player, even Germany. ”